Society-wide scenarios for effective integration of Paris-aligned climate mitigation and adaptation in national and regional policy

Climate science (IPCC 2018) and economics (Emmerling et al. 2019; Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel 2015) indicates that achieving far earlier and deeper mitigation than pledged to date is likely now critical to effective climate action – particularly to ensure limits to adaptation are not breached. However, clear and coherent comparisons of national and regional climate action have been lacking. Therefore, here we summarise a benchmarking method (McMullin et al. 2019) to establish a prudent, fair share of the remaining global CO2 budget for any Party to the Paris Agreement. Using Ireland as a case study, we analyse current policy ambition relative to this benchmarked national CO2 quota, demonstrate early emergence of CO2 debt, and show tacit mitigation policy reliance on future large scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Toward society-wide scenarios for effective climate action, we further examine the crucial roles of non-CO2 mitigation and safeguarding land carbon stocks

Evidence for Circumburst Extinction of Gamma-Ray Bursts with Dark Optical Afterglows and Evidence for a Molecular Cloud Origin of Gamma-Ray Bursts

First, we show that the gamma-ray bursts with dark optical afterglows (DOAs) cannot be explained by a failure to image deeply enough quickly enough, and argue that circumburst extinction is the most likely solution. If so, many DOAs will be ``revived'' with rapid follow up and NIR searches in the HETE-2 and Swift eras. Next, we consider the effects of dust sublimation and fragmentation, and show that DOAs occur in clouds of size R > 10L_{49}^{1/2} pc and mass M > 3x10^5L_{49} M_{sun}, where L is the luminosity of the optical flash. Stability considerations show that such clouds cannot be diffuse, but must be molecular. Consequently, we compute the expected column density distribution of bursts that occur in Galactic-like molecular clouds, and show that the column density measurements from X-ray spectra of afterglows, DOAs and otherwise, satisfy this expectation in the source frame.Comment: Invited Review. To appear in Procs. of Gamma-Ray Burst and Afterglow Astronomy 2001: A Workshop Celebrating the First Year of the HETE Mission, 8 pages, 8 figures, LaTe

Characteristics of the low-energy reporters in a longitudinal national dietary survey

The aim of the present study was to establish whether the characteristics of members of a large national birth cohort study who submitted diet diaries with implausibly low-energy intake differed from those whose recorded energy intake was more plausible. Survey members (n 1898) recorded their diets in a 7 d diary in household measures. Those whose reported energy intake (EI) as a fraction of their estimated BMR was less than 1.10, here termed low-energy reporters (LER) but often called under-reporters, constituted 20.6 % of the study population. None of the variables describing dietary, smoking or exercise behaviour bore a significant relationship with low EI/BMR (<1.10), neither did those describing region of residence, subjective adequacy of income, current social class, social relations or the social environment of the subjects. Results of logistic regression analysis showed that the only independently significant characteristic for men was higher BMI. In women, in addition to higher BMI, having been overweight or obese as an adult independently, but less significantly, predicted low EI/BMR, while membership as a child of social class III (nonmanual), having more children in the household and having a paid job marginally but independently decreased the probability of reporting low EI/BMR. Submission of a diary with EI/BMR <1.10 7 years earlier in the same survey was an even more powerful predictor of current low EI/BMR than higher BMI in both sexes. The average reported diet-composition of LER was more micronutrient- and protein-rich than that of the others, indicating different dietary, or diet-recording, behaviour in this group of subjects. LER are not a random sample of the survey population, and their characteristics, definable to some extent, put them at risk for lower health status. Although EI/BMR cut-off points can be used to identify LER, the problem of how to use their data is still unresolved

ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. COMMODITY LOAN PROGRAM WITH MARKETING LOAN PROVISIONS

Over the next several years, crop prices are projected to be below to slightly above commodity loan rates. As a result, marketing loan benefits to farmers, in the form of loan deficiency payments and marketing loan gains from the commodity loan program, are likely to continue to be sizeable. The level of realized per-unit revenues facilitated by marketing loans exceeds commodity loan rates, thereby raising expected net returns to farmers. Model simulations show that the loan program can raise total acreage planted to major field crops, generally increasing levels of domestic use and exports while lowering crop prices. Cross-commodity effects of supply response to relative returns (including marketing loan benefits), however, result in acreage shifts among competing crops, which can lead to reductions in plantings of some crops in some years. Most impacts occur in the years when there are marketing loan benefits, with little effect in subsequent years when prices rise high enough to eliminate marketing loan benefits. The livestock sector benefits from these outcomes because of generally lower feed costs.Commodity loans, marketing loans, nonrecourse loans, loan deficiency payments, price support, commodity programs, Agricultural Finance,

Investigating the Quitting Decision of Nurses: Panel Data Evidence from the British National Health Service

There is currently a worldwide shortage of registered nurses, driven by large shifts in both the demand for and supply of nurses. Consequently, various policies to increase the recruitment and retention of nurses are under discussion, in particular, the role that wage increases might have in promoting nurse labour supply. In this paper we provide the first detailed empirical investigation into the quitting behaviour of nurses in the British National Health Service (NHS), using a newly constructed longitudinal survey. We fit both single and competing-risks duration models that enable us to establish the characteristics of those nurses who leave the NHS, distinguish the importance of pay in this decision and document the destinations that nurses move to. Contrary to expectations, we find that the hourly wage received by nurses outside of the NHS is around 20% lower than in the NHS, and that hours of work are about the same. However, there is a clear movement away from shift work. Age, seniority, job and employer characteristics are all found to be important predictors of nurses leaving the NHS. However, whilst the effect of wages is found to be statistically significant, the predicted impact of an increase in nurses' pay on retention rates is small. Our main conclusion, therefore, is that the current nurse shortages in the NHS will not be eliminated through substantially increased pay. Rather employers need to identify and address other aspects of the job which are driving nurses' decisions to quit the NHS.nurses, panel data, wages, hours, quitting, NHS

System hazards in managing laboratory test requests and results in primary care: medical protection database analysis and conceptual model

Objectives To analyse a medical protection organisation's database to identify hazards related to general practice systems for ordering laboratory tests, managing test results and communicating test result outcomes to patients. To integrate these data with other published evidence sources to inform design of a systems-based conceptual model of related hazards. Design A retrospective database analysis. Setting General practices in the UK and Ireland. Participants 778 UK and Ireland general practices participating in a medical protection organisation's clinical risk self-assessment (CRSA) programme from January 2008 to December 2014. Main outcome measures Proportion of practices with system risks; categorisation of identified hazards; most frequently occurring hazards; development of a conceptual model of hazards; and potential impacts on health, well-being and organisational performance. Results CRSA visits were undertaken to 778 UK and Ireland general practices of which a range of systems hazards were recorded across the laboratory test ordering and results management systems in 647 practices (83.2%). A total of 45 discrete hazard categories were identified with a mean of 3.6 per practice (SD=1.94). The most frequently occurring hazard was the inadequate process for matching test requests and results received (n=350, 54.1%). Of the 1604 instances where hazards were recorded, the most frequent was at the ‘postanalytical test stage’ (n=702, 43.8%), followed closely by ‘communication outcomes issues’ (n=628, 39.1%). Conclusions Based on arguably the largest data set currently available on the subject matter, our study findings shed new light on the scale and nature of hazards related to test results handling systems, which can inform future efforts to research and improve the design and reliability of these systems

A longitudinal rehabilitation case study for hemiparetic gait using outdoor rhythmic haptic cueing via a wearable device

Introduction Improvement of gait is a high priority for hemiparetic stroke survivors. Auditory rhythmic cueing is a proven method for improving gait via entrainment but use is limited outside the lab. The lack of use in outdoor settings seems to reflect the problem that auditory cueing can be distracting and isolating out of doors, where survivors typically need to remain safe, aware of the environment. In such settings, haptic cueing offers an unobtrusive, invisible, sociable, safe alternative. Research Question Existing studies have demonstrated improvements in temporal symmetry, increase in stride length and walking speed by means of post-stroke gait rehabilitation using wearable haptic devices in the lab. However, previous studies have been limited to laboratory settings and have focused on short-term improvements. By contrast, we present the first case study on the self-managed use of wearable haptics for gait rehabilitation via entrainment in outdoor settings, and the first findings from applying this technique over a number of days. Methods A longitudinal pilot study was conducted with a single hemiparetic participant providing rhythmic haptic cueing using a wearable haptic device for a two-week period. The participant was asked to walk in synchrony to the haptic rhythm at a suitable outdoor setting for a minimum of 10 minutes each day. Gait data was measured before and after the two-week intervention using lab-based IMU sensors. Results On comparing before and after gait characteristics, preliminary results showed substantial improvement in temporal symmetry and walking speed. Conclusions There is implications for potential long-term benefits for stroke survivors in gait rehabilitation using rhythmic haptic cueing. Improvements in temporal symmetry, increase in stride length and walking speed could improve confidence, independence and overall quality of life for stroke survivors, with implications for reduction of costs associated with care and rehabilitation

Wearable Haptic Devices for Long-Term Gait Re-education for Neurological Conditions

Many people with long-term neurological and neurodegenerative conditions such as stroke, brain injury, multiple sclerosis or Parkinson’s disease suffer from an impaired walking gait pattern. Gait improvement can lead to better fluidity in walking, improved health outcomes, greater independence, and enhanced quality of life. Existing lab-based studies with wearable haptic devices have shown that rhythmic haptic cueing can cause immediate improvements to gait features such as temporal symmetry, stride length and walking speed. However, such wearable haptic devices are unsuitable for self-managed use, and to move this approach from out of the lab into long-term sustained usage, numerous design challenges need to be addressed. We are designing, developing, and testing a closed-loop system to provide adaptive haptic rhythmic cues for sustainable self-managed long-term use outside the lab by survivors of stroke, and other neurological conditions, in their everyday lives